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If we know our financial projections are going to be wrong, why should we try hard when making them? Wharton Emeritus Professor Peter Linneman explains.
BRUCE KIRSCH: Students will often ask me about cap rates. What has a higher cap rate? A retail or apartment? So for instance, if we’re looking at a mixed-use transaction, where you have residences above and ground floor retail, you would ideally like to be able to assign different independent cap rates to the retail component and the residential component. And so people want to know, which one should have a higher cap rate.
PETER LINNEMAN: Right.
BRUCE KIRSCH: And the answer is like, most things in real estate is, it depends.
PETER LINNEMAN: Yep, there’s no mathematical answer to it. Or you can’t go to a website and find the answer. You actually have to think about it. It depends on risk and liquidity. And is the retail in your example, low risk, leased to Publix supermarket– a very high-credit supermarket– for 20 years in central Manhattan. So even if Publix were to leave, there’s going to be plenty of people who would love to have that space. So my retail would have a very low cap rate, about as low as you could get.
On the other hand, take the same physically designed retail, and put it in suburban Kansas City, with a startup retailer selling used dresses. And if they move out, I don’t know who I’d replace them with. It’s very different.
BRUCE KIRSCH: Right.
PETER LINNEMAN: And both of the sense of who would I sell it to and who would I replace them with, and also the credit of the party there– so the same way on apartments, you get me in a very strong apartment market, where people are anxious to invest because they want exposure there– New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, DC. Cape rate is going to be low on multifamily, because I can always replace one tenant. And there’s always money for it.
You get me an apartment building in Detroit, where the population is shrinking the occupancy is weak and no capital wants to go there, cap rate is going to be very high. So risk and liquidity, risk and liquidity– and you could give me a building that has apartments on top and retail on the bottom. And depending on its design location and specific tenancy, I’ll tell you the retail has more or less risk, more or less liquidity. So it’s not a kind of universal answer. You actually have to think– risk and liquidity, risk and liquidity, how does it stack up?
BRUCE KIRSCH: And I try to explain cap rates to my students as it’s really a reflection of the attractiveness of the nature of that particular cash flow stream.
PETER LINNEMAN: That’s it. Not one in another location, in another building, with another lease, with another tenant– that one.
BRUCE KIRSCH: Exactly, exactly. So it gets down to the actual physical location granularity.
PETER LINNEMAN: Absolutely, absolutely. And quite honestly, that’s what makes it a profession if you think about it. If it was as simple as go to a website, cap.com, and it would tell you it would be formula, rather than a profession. It’s a profession because you’re constantly making and revising those judgments.
